Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 1)
Posted on September 29th, 2009 in Global Focus Contagious_Disease, Pandemic
Where did it start?
Swine flu virus didn’t come from Indonesia. It could be from outside. If we assumed that tourists who came to Indonesia has brought this deadly virus in their bodies, it’s probably a good guess. But we couldn’t assume that they wanted to visit pigs farms. There’re many places to visit and I think pigs farms were not included.
Researchers found pigs in Indonesia infected by H1N1 virus in September 2009. If this virus didn’t come from Indonesia and none of tourists visited the pigs farms, so where did this poor animal get this virus from?
That’s what we like to find out. And this search would reveal some interesting things (or scary things, depend on your point of view). Let’s check it out. When most people think that this is what doctors must know, as a matter of fact this is what people must know.
Ask again, where did it truly start?
Swine flu is a very deadly virus that spread to all over the world quickly. It was firstly believed that this virus can not be transmitted from human to human, only from animal to human, until researchers found that this human-to-human transmission of swine flu can also occur. But first of all, it’s still quite interesting to know where exactly it started. George Harti, a WHO spokesman, said that the source of some infections in the United States, Canada, and Britain was unclear. Swine flu has already spread to at least six countries besides Mexico, prompting WHO officials to raise its alert level. Most people confirmed with the new swine flu were infected in Mexico, where the number of deaths blamed on the virus has surpassed 150. First identification of this new strain was in April 2009 and the outbreak began in Mexico. Therefore, besides H1N1 virus, it’s also called as Mexican virus.
But, let us look back into 1918. There was a kind of strain virus in Spain which caused 40 – 50 million deaths worldwide. It was swine flu, and when it was identified, the pandemic had already begun. Then, let us look back into 1976 when swine flu outbreak at Fort Dix, New Jersey. In August 1976, The NIIP (National Influenza Immunization Program) Convention of the American Legion found an outbreak of a particularly lethal strain of pneumonia occurring, killing 29 out of 182 people who contacted it. While this was in no way connected to swine flu, the media made a connection between this strain of pneumonia known as, ‘Legionnaire’s Disease,’ and swine flu. Even though vast numbers of people were successfully immunized in a short period of time, the NIIP rapidly became recognized as a failure because the epidemic that had been greatly feared failed to surface. Read here
Indonesia, finding the facts of truth
It was surprising when Health Minister of Indonesia declared in April 2009 that Indonesia was free from swine flu. It seemed too early to say that. As a matter of fact, it’s not free yet. Case by case occured from May until July 14th, 2009 which 112 cases reported (63 males, 49 females). Until August 18, 2009, these amount were increasing to 872 confirmed cases of swine flu and 4 deaths reported. Then, in September 18, 2009, there were 1097 confirmed cases and 10 deaths reported. It means 25,8% increasing rate per month. For detail, you can click here.
If you see the table in here, you will notice that this virus is more deadly in tropical countries as there are more deaths than in sub tropical countries. Indonesia, for example, has 0,91% death rate per infection. It means there is a death in every 110 cases. Compare it with China which only a death in every 9103 cases or 0,01% death rate per infection. How may this happen? I’m sure that we are very cautious about that since Indonesia never been told as the origin of swine flu. Each explanation below would make you interested. Please have your time to read this article from Scidev.net published at May 28th, 2009.
The mutation or reassortment of swine flu — influenza A(H1N1) — virus into a more lethal form is most likely to occur in tropical countries, researchers have warned.
Influenza viruses circulate all year round in the tropics but the region is often overlooked, with more attention paid to seasonal flu in temperate regions of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, say scientists.
Papers published last year provide evidence that influenza viruses mix and mutate in the tropics. South-East Asian countries in particular harbour many influenza viruses.
The risk of reassortment is exacerbated because humans often live in close proximity to livestock in poor tropical countries, says Ken Shortridge, a retired flu specialist in China and South-East Asia.
This still didn’t explain why the mortality rate in tropical countries was higher than sub tropical ones. Should we be sure that the virus has mutated to a deadly strain now and killed people in tropical countries? Is that why? And how about sub tropical countries? Hasn’t the virus mutated yet? If only this virus has already been able to kill people that many, it didn’t need to mutate anymore. It’s already deadly one! Scientists must do something better than just forecasting this virus in the future.
What Ken said at the latest paragraph gives a very weak argument. I don’t feel satisfy of that explanation and maybe neither do you. Why do I say so? China has about 500 million pigs population and we can’t be sure that there is no living in close proximity to livestock. Wouldn’t it be very risky, too, not only in poor tropical countries? If the word “poor tropical countries” referred to developing countries, such as Indonesia, well…. I have met people who lived next to swine farms for years and none of them contracted the virus. How do we explain that? Where did the risk go? For your information, this deadly virus came into Indonesia through H1N1-infected people who have travelled from abroad, not from swine farmers. To be honest, recent studies have shown that only 15% to 25% swine farmers might have swine flu viruses, as well as about 10% of veteranians. You can read it on the brochure below. I wonder how many people has read it.
The statement would be better if written like this : “The risk of reassortment is exacerbated IF humans live in close proximity to livestock, especially in tropical countries.”
Related posts:
- Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 6)
- Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 2)
- Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 3)
- Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 4)
- Swine Flu in Indonesia : Unfolding the Facts — (Part 5)
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