<strong> <a href="http://careandhealed.com/2009/10/earthquake-in-west-sumatra-before-and-after-part-1/">EARTHQUAKE IN WEST SUMATRA : BEFORE AND AFTER — (Part 1)</a></strong><p><span class="rdetector_placeholder_before"></span> <div style="padding:1.2em;background-color:#HEX_HERE;line-height:1.4;">It was on Wednesday, September 30, 2009. I was in Medan. But, most of my mother’s family were in Padang, West Sumatra. There was nothing to be worried about. Until television reported a extremely shocking news :</p> <blockquote><p><em>7,6 Ritcher Scale Eartquake ruined West Sumatra at 17.16 in that afternoon.</em></p></blockquote> <p>We are shocked. We tried to contact our family in Padang, but none of them answered. It was said that telecomunication tower has collapsed. There’s no contact for at least 24 hours. We didn’t know whether our family were dead in the earthquake or not.</p> <p>It was a very long day.<br /> Thursday, October 1, 2009, my mother’s cellphone rang. “We’re okay here.” Said the person on the phone. He’s my uncle. Alhamdulillah, finally. Then, the cellphone rang again. “Aunty, we’re fine here. But our house… hiks hiks…” She’s my cousin who talking to my mother and she’s crying.</p> <p>West Sumatra is a rather fragile land, even 6 ritcher scale could make a massive destruction. There’re so many news reported this big disaster, told us about the massive destruction in West Sumatra. More than 700 people died, more than 2000 people wounded, and more than 200.000 house damaged. We’re very shocked.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">But, it was more shocked to know that….</p> <p style="text-align: center;">it was a predictable earthquake!!</p> <p style="height: 1.4em;"> <p><a href="http://careandhealed.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/intensity-w540.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-371 aligncenter" title="Earthquake prediction" src="http://careandhealed.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/intensity-w540.jpg" alt="Earthquake prediction" width="405" height="510" /></a></p> <h2><strong>An early warning</strong></h2> <p>I’m not a geology expert. So, I would not write about forecasting earthquake or geology things here. As I read, many opinions associated the 7,6 ritcher scale earthquake in West Sumatra with the 8,0 ritcher scale earthquake in Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga which happened 24 hours early.  But, Tony Legget from World Meteorology Bureau disagreed. He said that there was no connection between those two earthquakes, since there’re no real evidence in this level.</p> <p>There’s a warning signal which was written by Antara on August, 2009. (Click <a title="Antara News" href="http://www.antara.co.id/en/news/1250533583/quake-energy-has-potential-to-further-rattle-west-sumatra" target="_blank">here</a>) But, it seemed too early to predict the bigger earthquake. So, they just reminded the people of West Sumatra to watch out for possible stronger quakes. We didn’t get any warning from Geophysic  and Meteorology Agency. So, I assumed that there’s no prediction made by GMA. If I was misinformed about this, please correct me.</p> <p>Then I ran into this site : <a title="Earthquake Forecasting" href="http://www.nextearthquake.com/" target="_blank">www.nextearthquake.com</a><span style="color: #000000;"><a href="http://www.nextearthquake.com/"></a></span>. This site is wrote by Reg Roberts. He wrote this on his site.</p> <table id="wp-table-reloaded-id-4-no-2" class="wp-table-reloaded wp-table-reloaded-id-4"> <thead> <tr class="row-1 odd"> <th class="column-1">Region</th><th class="column-2">Expected<br /> Magnitude<br /> Ranges <br /> & Dates<br /> </th><th class="column-3">Observed<br /> Maximum<br /> Magnitude<br /> </th><th class="column-4">Accuracy compared to mid range (%)</th><th class="column-5">Observed <br /> Date & Location<br /> </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="row-2 even"> <td class="column-1">Sumatra<br /> Northern Region <br /> within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra <br /> Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67<br /> </td><td class="column-2">M4.0-M6.0<br /> expected about Oct 8+/-3 days<br /> (posted 1135 hours 3rd Oct)<br /> </td><td class="column-3">M5.0</td><td class="column-4">100%</td><td class="column-5">5th October 2009<br /> Lat -0.83 Lon 99.80<br /> 63 km W of Padang, Sumatra (EMSC source) forecast 2 days ahead<br /> </td> </tr> <tr class="row-3 odd"> <td class="column-1">Sumatra<br /> Northern Region <br /> within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra <br /> Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67<br /> </td><td class="column-2">M6.0-M8.0<br /> expected about Sept 28+/-3 days<br /> (posted 2309 hours 16th Sept)<br /> </td><td class="column-3">M7.6</td><td class="column-4">92%</td><td class="column-5">30th September 2009<br /> Lat -0.789 Lon 99.961<br /> 45 km WNW of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia<br /> (USGS source)<br /> forecast 14 days ahead<br /> </td> </tr> <tr class="row-4 even"> <td class="column-1">Sumatra<br /> Southern Region <br /> within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra <br /> Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14<br /> </td><td class="column-2">M4.8-M6.8<br /> expected about Sept 22+/-3 days<br /> (posted 0915 hours 16th Sept)<br /> </td><td class="column-3">M6.6</td><td class="column-4">88%</td><td class="column-5">1st October 2009<br /> Lat -2.589 Lon 101.546<br /> 155 NNW of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra, Indonesia ((USGS source) forecast 15 days ahead<br /> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="height: 1.4em;"> <p>As you see, they’re truly amazing predictions. I wonder if we read this posting early before the disaster came, how many lives will be saved? I know it will be hard to believe human’s predictions, as we have God to believe in. But, there must be a sign. I’m sure that the prediction didn’t come through the dream, but a great method that few people understand.</p> <p style="height: 1.4em;"> <p>(<a title="Earthquake in West Sumatra Part 2" href="http://careandhealed.com/2009/10/earthquake-in-west-sumatra-before-and-after-part-2/" target="_self">Continue to Part 2</a>)</div> <input type="hidden" id="rdetector_data" value="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" name="rdetector_data" /><span class="rdetector_placeholder_after"></span></p> <p>Related posts:</p><ol><li><a href='http://careandhealed.com/2009/10/earthquake-in-west-sumatra-before-and-after-part-3/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: EARTHQUAKE IN WEST SUMATRA : BEFORE AND AFTER — (Part 3)'>EARTHQUAKE IN WEST SUMATRA : BEFORE AND AFTER — (Part 3)</a></li> <li><a href='http://careandhealed.com/2009/10/earthquake-in-west-sumatra-before-and-after-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: EARTHQUAKE IN WEST SUMATRA : BEFORE AND AFTER — (Part 2)'>EARTHQUAKE IN WEST SUMATRA : BEFORE AND AFTER — (Part 2)</a></li> </ol><br> <div style="border: 2px dashed #C2C2C2;padding: 3px;background: #FFFFFF;padding:7px;"> This article is published by <a href="http://careandhealed.com">http://careandhealed.com</a>. 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